Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 14 brokers · 447 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-23.
Broker models frame Sonova as a mid-single-digit organic grower where the FY-2028 story is margin, not volume: EBITA margin is modeled to step from ~19.6% in FY-2026 to ~22.6% in FY-2028 while organic growth holds near 5%. Hearing-instrument retail is overtaking wholesale as the fastest-growing division, and cochlear implants trough in FY-2027 before a partial recovery. Consensus on the group total is tight; the real disagreement lives in the pace of the FY-2028 segment rebound.
Margins are the story: EBITA margin steps from ~19.6% to ~22.6% by FY-2028
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITA margin(%) | 19.9% | 19.6% | 22.0% | 22.6% | +2.4pt | 11 |
| EBITA | CHF 762.98m | CHF 741.76m | CHF 832.02m | CHF 907.03m | +12.2% | 12 |
| Gross profit | CHF 2.80bn | CHF 2.70bn | CHF 2.81bn | CHF 3.00bn | +4.0% | 10 |
| EBITDA | CHF 932.18m | CHF 943.64m | CHF 1.04bn | CHF 1.14bn | +10.3% | 8 |
Retail is overtaking wholesale as the growth engine; cochlear implants are the drag
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Hearing Instruments business | CHF 1.82bn | CHF 1.86bn | CHF 1.96bn | CHF 2.07bn | +5.5% | 12 |
| Revenue - Hearing instrument retail | CHF 1.48bn | CHF 1.48bn | CHF 1.58bn | CHF 1.71bn | +6.8% | 12 |
| Revenue - Cochlear implants | CHF 302.27m | CHF 273.69m | CHF 250.20m | CHF 268.23m | -8.6% | 12 |
| Revenue - Consumer hearing business | CHF 241.72m | CHF 229.82m | CHF 218.46m | CHF 256.82m | -4.9% | 11 |
Constant currency: wholesale growth fades from ~8% to <5% while retail holds ~7%
Wholesale constant-currency growth decelerates from ~8% toward ~5% across the forecast while retail re-accelerates above 7%. Cochlear swings from -4% in FY-2026 to +6% by FY-2028 as it laps its reset.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC growth | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hearing instruments business - CC growth(%) | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | -1.8pt | 11 |
| Hearing instrument retail - CC growth(%) | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | +2.0pt | 11 |
| Revenue - Cochlear implants - Constant currency(%) | 9.5% | -4.1% | 0.0% | 6.1% | +4.1pt | 11 |
The FY-2028 rebound sits in the segments brokers least agree on
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Cochlear implants | FY-2028E | CHF 268.27m | CHF 262.75m–CHF 278.77m | CHF 235.33m–CHF 288.92m | 10 |
| Revenue - Consumer hearing business | FY-2028E | CHF 248.23m | CHF 243.30m–CHF 257.11m | CHF 231.69m–CHF 317.02m | 7 |
| Revenue - Hearing Instruments business | FY-2028E | CHF 2.06bn | CHF 2.04bn–CHF 2.09bn | CHF 1.96bn–CHF 2.20bn | 10 |
Deep coverage on divisions, thin on product splits
Division-level lines carry 10-13 brokers and were refreshed this week, but product splits are thin: cochlear-implant-systems and upgrade/accessories rest on 4-5 brokers and consumer hearing shows a single broker in FY-2027. Read those as indicative, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.